Construction and Confirmation of Hypotheses

          

     Construction and Confirmation of Hypotheses

                                                                                                       

Introduction:

The formulation of hypotheses as to the possible answer to the research question is an important step in the process of formulation of

research problem hypotheses is usually considered as the principal instrument in research. When research is conducted hypothesis formulation is one of the most preliminary step. Hypothesis formulation helps in formulating research problem. Hypothesis formulation is not a necessary but an important step of research. A valid and reasonable research can be conducted without any hypothesis. Hypothesis can be one and it can be as many as possible.

        “A hypothesis is a proposed theory or explanation for an observation, phenomenon or problem; which can be tested through further study and/or experimentation”

§  A hypothesis is a logical supposition,

§  A reasonable Guess

§  An intelligent guess

§  An  educated assumption

    

“It provides a tentative explanation for a phenomenon under investigation.”(Leedy and ormrod 2001)

• An hypothesis is a preliminary or tentative explanation or postulate by the researcher of what the researcher consider the outcome of an investigation will be it is an informed/ educated guess
• It indicated the expectation of the researcher regarding certain variables. It is the most specific way in which an answer to a problem can be stated

Criteria of a hypothesis:

ü  Simplicity: It must be formulated in the simple term

ü  Conceptual clarity: It should have defined understandable concept

ü  Theoretical Relevance: It should to furnish an acceptable explanation of the phenomena

ü  Testability: It must be verifiable

ü  Researchability: It should correspond with existing knowledge and available techniques

ü  Specificity: It should be limited in scope and must be specific. It should state the expected relationship between variables

ü  Consistency: It should be logically consistent

ü  Adequacy:  It should adequately state the size and condition of variables in a meaning full way

ü  Objectivity: : it should be free from value judgment of the researcher

ü  It should be tested with amenable time

WHEN IS AN HYPOTHESIS FORMULATED?

                  An hypothesis is formulated after the problem has been stated and the literature study has been concluded.  It is formulated when the researcher is totally aware of the theoretical and empirical background to the problem.

     Necessary conditions to formulate the hypothesis

Richness of background Knowledge: observation of behavior

                          Classroom teacher daily observes student behavior on the basis of experience and his knowledge of behavior in a school situation the teacher may  attempt to relate the behaviors of the students to his own to his teaching  method to changes in the school environment and so on from observed relationship the teacher may inductively formulate a hypothesis that attempts to explain such relationship

Background Knowledge   however is essential for perceiving relationship among the variables and to determine what finding other researchers have reported on the problem under the study.

Versatility of intellect:  Hypotheses are also derived through deductive

                               Reasoning from a theory it is called deductive hypothesis.

     It is used to find out the all possible information about the problem and then think liberally on it and proceed further in the conduct of the study.

Analogy and practices:

                                  Analogies also lead the researcher to clues that he might find useful in the formulation of hypothesis and for finding solution to problem.

KEY OF HYPOTHESIS: These are as follows;

a. Explanatory or Descriptive Hypothesis: A hypothesis may be about the cause of a phenomenon or about the law of which it is an instance. A hypothesis about cause is explanatory whereas a hypothesis about law is descriptive.

b. Tentative Hypothesis: when a phenomenon cannot be fully understood because of technical difficulties make tentative hypothesis about it and see how far this is successful in explaining. Sometimes we simultaneously test two or more hypotheses. The famous hypothesis about propagation of light namely waves theory and corpuscular theory of light both explain the phenomenon of light but none of them are final. They are tentative.

C. Representative Fictitious Hypothesis: Some hypothesis consists of assumptions as to the certain phenomenon; these assumptions can never be proved by direct means. Their only merit is their suitability to express the phenomenon. They are Representative Fiction. Einstein’s formula, E = mc²is an instance of representative fiction. A representative fictitious hypothesis which proves to be correct becomes a theory or law. The law of gravitation was a hypothesis in Newton’s mind but when it proved to be true it became law

  How to write a hypothesis?

§  Notice that these  statements contain the words if and then

§  They are necessary in a formalized hypotheses but not all if-then statements are hypotheses

§  Formalized hypotheses contain independent and dependent variables

Construction of hypotheses: Hypotheses are guesses or tentative generalization there are no precise rules for formulating hypotheses and deducing consequences from them that can be empirically verified. However there are certain necessary conditions that are conductive to their formulation

Steps in Construction and testing of hypothesis

a. Observation: Observation is a precondition of formulation of a hypothesis. Unless perceive a difficulty or problem and do not feel the inner goading for solving it, we do not reflect. Therefore, observation is the first stage of hypothesis making.

b. Reflection: Having felt a difficulty and need for a solution we consider the problem by perceiving the relevant facts. For example, we see a sea in a high tide and also find clear moon above. Now we anticipate a relation which is based upon experience, namely, whenever there is high tide there is full moon and never otherwise as far as our experience goes. Having established a relation between two facts, we now formulate an answer for the why of this relation. This answer is hypothesis.

c. Deduction: The third and the last step in this process is testing of hypothesis, various deductions possible from it and their mutual compatibilities and correspondence with already known facts. For example, if we have a hypothesis that madness increases with increasing complexity of civilization, it will follow from this that there are more mad persons in New York today than in Delhi today. Now this in fact is not true. Therefore, our hypothesis is defective, because certain facts which follow from it are false. Thus deduction is extremely useful in rejecting ill formed hypothesis.

d. Verification: Actually, verification is post hypothesis formulation and therefore is not a step in its formulation, but in as much as our interest in making hypothesis is not purely academic or theoretical, we wish to solve our difficulty and this difficulty can be solved, if we actually test our hypothesis.

 

Instructions

1)      Create your hypothesis. Try phrasing the hypothesis as a question like "Does smoking cause lung cancer?"

2)      Formulate the hypothesis by making it a conditional statement like "Smoking may cause lung cancer.

3)      Write a formalized hypothesis like "If smoking causes lung cancer, then individuals who smoke have a higher frequency of developing the disease." This type of "if-then" hypothesis is considered the most useful.

4)      Double-check that your hypothesis contains variables. The researcher is in control of the independent variable in the experiment. The dependant variable, however, is merely observed in the context of the experiment. For an experiment to be valid, it must contain at least two variables.

5)      Verify that your hypothesis includes a subject group. A subject group defines who or what the researcher is studying. In the example above, the subject group is the smokers.

6)      Include a treatment or exposure in the experiment. A treatment is literally what is being done to the subject group. In our example, the exposure is smoke or smoking.

7)      Prepare for an outcome measure, which is a measurement concerned with how the treatment is going to be assessed. The outcome measure in our smoking scenario is the frequency of smokers developing cancer in subject population.

8)      Understand your control group. The control group or place to is a group similar to the subject group, but this group does not receive the treatment. It is a population that the subject group is compared to. In the smoking example, the control group is non-smokers.

There are three important points to formulate the hypotheses:

v  It should not come to prediction

Example:

                 “Ultraviolet light may cause skin cancer”

v  It should not come to conclusion

Example;

                  “Ultraviolet light causes skin cancer”

v  It should be only formalized form of hypothesis

Example:

      “If skin cancer is related to ultraviolet light then “exposing skin to ultraviolet light will result in skin cancer”

DIFFICULTIES IN FORMULATION OF HYPOTHESIS: The following are the difficulties encountered in formulation of the hypothesis.

a. Lack of Clear theoretical background: If researcher does not have a clear cut theoretical background then it is not easy to formulate a hypothesis

 b. Lack of Logical Background: If researcher is lacking in logical use of the theoretical background then also formulation of hypothesis will be very difficult.

c. Lack of Knowledge of Scientific Methods: It is always not possible to have complete information of an acquaintance with the scientific methods for formulation of hypothesis. This lack of scientific knowledge presents difficulty in formulation of hypothesis. Ways and means of removal of difficulties with formulation of hypothesis Hypothesis following steps shall be taken:

1.      Complete and perfect knowledge of the principles and practices of the discipline in which hypothesis to be formulated has to be acquired through training, specialprogrammes, conference, seminar etc.

2. From the very beginning the hypothesis should be brief and timely.

3. The hypothesis should become elaborate as it proceeds in the field of research.

CONFIRMATION OF HYPOTHESIS

A hypothesis may be directly or indirectly confirmable. It is confirmed directly if some observation or experiment can test it. The hypothesis that coffee taken at night makes a man sleepless can be tested by giving coffee at night to a number of people a number of times and observing its effect on them. Where we cannot confirm a hypothesis directly, we consider consequences derivable from it or we may examine the validity of its opposite consequences .

for example  the law of gravitation  is not  directly observable  but if it is true heavy things must fall an aero plane does not fall but an aero plane uses some special device to stay in air therefore the law of gravitation is true

The following difficulties or shortcoming make it unrlaiable of sensation for conformation of hypothesis

v  Observation itself requires hypothesis for interpretation  of sensation and perception

v  The observation may be erroneous

v  The hypothesis which directs observation also determines in large measure what  factors in the subject matter are noted therefore the observations is unreliable

v  Since  the scientific observation are carried on by the aid of instrument of such instruments  must be known

v  Logic of hypotheses testing:

                    The basic logic of hypothesis testing is to prove or disprove the research question.  By only allowing an error of 5% or 1% and making correct decisions based on statistical principles, the researcher can conclude that the result must be real if chance alone could produce the same result only 5% of the time or less. These four steps consist of all the decisions a researcher needs to make in order to answer any research question using an inferential statistical test.

Step 1: Set the null and alternative hypotheses

Hypothesis:

                    The level of leadership qualities among P.G students with regard to Gender

H1 There is significant difference in level of leadership qualities  between the male and female PG students

H0: There is no difference in level of leadership qualities  between the male and female PG students

Step 2: Calculate the test statistic

     

                           

                              

Substitute the values for given formula we get the‘t’ value =0.60

                     

Step 3: compute probability of test statistic or rejection region

S.NO	VARIABLES	SUB VARIABLES	MEAN	S.D	N	‘t’VALUE	LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE
1)	Gender	Male	114.62	15.33	114	0.60	No Significance
		Female	115.629	11.64	186

  From the above table it is inferred that the calculated ‘t’ value 0.60 is lesser than the  table’t’  value 1.98 at 0.05 level of significance. Hence the null hypothesis is accepted

and research hypothesis is rejected it is indicates there is no significant difference between the male and female postgraduate students in the leadership qualities

Calculated value < 1.98 at 0.05 level (t) H0 is accepted

Calculated value >1.98 at 0.05 level (t) H0 is rejected H1 accepted

Step 4: state Conclusion Hypothesis

According to the table the analysis shows is no significant difference in the level of leadership qualities between the male and female PG students the result indicates that the leadership qualities does not favor any particular gender

Conclusion:

            It is true that hypotheses are useful and they guide the research process in the proper direction infact many experiment are carried out with the deliberate object  of testing hypotheses. Decision-makers often face situation where in they are interested in the testing the hypotheses on the basis of available information and then take decision on the basis of such testing. But in all analytical and experiment studies hypotheses should set up in order to give a proper direction to them. The hypothesis will guide a researcher in the selection of pertinent facts that are required to explain this issue considered of the study thus formulation of hypotheses plays an important role in the research studies.